More and more organizations began to notice the debt crisis negative impact on emerging markets is rising. HSBC data released Tuesday by the euro zone manufacturing slowdown and the crisis drag on, the fourth quarter of last year, emerging markets, weak economic growth. Credit Suisse said in the Monday, the annual survey, and wage inflation is expected to decrease by the impact of emerging markets this year, consumer confidence will decline.
HSBC data show that the fourth quarter of last year, emerging markets index (EMI) was 52.2, and 52.0 in the third quarter, essentially flat. The index of 16 countries according to purchasing managers' index (PMI) compiled the assessment, to achieve above 50 shows economic expansion.
Jane Shaun HSBC chief economist, said in a statement, the fourth quarter of last year, emerging market economies to achieve only modest growth, highlighting the growth of global trade decline after peeking in early 2011. Reported that the manufacturing slowdown in emerging markets is a major cause of weak growth. Last year's fourth quarter, manufacturing output in emerging markets appear the biggest drop since early 2009, Asia was the worst performance.
However, Jane Shaun also pointed out that "despite the emerging markets in the next 12 months, there are many things to face, but they have cut interest rates and fiscal stimulus provided by the space, to provide some of the chips to come back."
In addition, Credit Suisse announced on Monday the global survey of consumers in emerging markets in Brazil, Russia, India and China, the number of optimistic consumers than pessimists lower compared with last year. Credit Suisse said that Indonesia's consumer confidence. The survey also found that consumer in emerging markets athletic footwear and other non-consumer lower spending on necessities.
Overseas medium commented that if the global economy can maintain a certain momentum, it must be driven by emerging markets. However, with the developed economies, emerging economies are also enveloped in the world's largest economic threat - under the shadow of the debt crisis.
In addition, although the price-earnings ratio close to emerging markets since 2009, the cheapest level, but still not preferred by investors, the market worried about slowing economic growth is not conducive to profit outlook. Last year, Ming Shang (MSI) Emerging Markets Index fell 20%, as compared the stock market in developed countries fell by 7.6% in 2011, the U.S. S & P 500 index is almost flat.
"Now you want to publish 'buy' signal, but also too early to say," French bank Society General in London, head of global emerging markets strategist Benoit Anne said, "emerging market economies face the risk of a serious slowdown. Taking into account macroeconomic factors, at this juncture, it excites our willingness to buy emerging market equities. "
International Monetary Fund (IMF) first deputy president of Dali Weil Templeton said on Monday, IMF is seeking to cooperate more closely in Asia, to reduce the impact of global crisis on the region and promote more stable and strong global growth.
Lipton said: "From a global perspective, the pace of economic activity weakened, Europe and the world face significant risk." He stressed that now needs to focus on identifying more promising way to overcome the crisis. If you do not take bold action, Europe may fall into confidence, growth stagnation and unemployment increased risk. Today's interconnected global economy, not a single country or region can be spared, for the trade and financial ties with Europe closely in Asia in particular.